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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|